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Tochigi: A Low Occurrence of Disasters for Safety and Peace of Mind
Earthquake Activity Forecast Map Based on Establishment Theory
Distribution map of the probability of a low Scale-6 or greater earthquake occurring within the next 30 years.** (Starting January 1st, 2009)
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| Note: |
Because evaluation results of "average activity intervals" and "latest activity time" for seismic activity along the main active fault belt may vary, when constructing the established theory-based earthquake forecast map,
consideration is given to the following: |
* “Average case” calculates the probability of an earthquake by using the value of the center of both as a representative.
* “Maximum case” uses the maximum value of the probability evaluation. |
Source: The "Outline of Seismic Activity in Japan" Report, published by the Earthquake Research Committee at the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
■Chances of an Earthquake Occurring Along the Prefecture's Only Active Fault, the "Sekiya Fault Line"
Long-Term
Probability
of an Earthquake
Occurring at a
Certain Magnitude |
Earthquake Probability |
Average frequency
of occurrence |
Most recent
occurrence |
| Within 30 years |
Within 50 years |
Within 100 years |
| Magnitude 7.5 |
Nearly 0% |
Nearly 0% |
Nearly 0% |
Every 2600-
4100 years |
Between the
14th & 17th Centuries |
Source: The "Long-Term Summary of Past Earthquakes along Active Fault Lines and the Ocean Floor", published by the Earthquake Research Committee at the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
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